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BANKS AND RATES
Easy money does not mean easy banking profits. Even so，last week‘s decision
by the Federal Reserve to increase the ①discount rate②at which it lends to banks
was hailed as the beginning of the end for bank profitability. In fact，the move
is something of a technicality – borrowing under the main discount facility is
now about $14bn，down from a crisis-time peak of more than $110bn. Use of the
term auction facility，which the Fed has been winding down for some time and will
end in March，has also declined.
True，the Fed’s zero interest rate policy
has kept the ③yield curve steep.With US banks‘average net interest margin at a
four-year high，some banks laden with bad assets last year benefited as cheaper
funding helped to balance continuing high rates of provisions and credit costs.
But this cannot last. Yields in banks’ loan books are already
shrinking，notes Institutional Risk Analytics.That worsens the longer rates
remain low as assets reprice，and ④redemptions and charge-offs shrink outstanding
loans.
Rising rates，by contrast， should make it easier for banks to deploy
money profitably. Sharp rises increase the chances that some banks fall flat
over their interest rate risk. But，argues Credit Suisse，banks have been
converting loan books to variable pricing，which means greater earnings uplift
from rising rates.
With $1，100bn of excess bank reserves at the Fed，this
presents another problem：that banks lend out those reserves，⑤delivering a boost
to the economy at just the wrong time. This explains the renewed emphasis on
payment of interest on reserves，a tool to prevent that happening.
That，however，is a headache for the central bank. Banks should welcome ⑥tighter
money，even if those borrowing from them do not.
譯文梗概:
如何看美聯儲提高貼現率
容易獲得資金并不意味著銀行業能輕松獲取利潤。即便如此，美聯儲(Fed)決定提高貸款給銀行的貼現率，還是被當作終結銀行盈利能力的開端。實際上，此舉帶有某種技術性質——目前通過主要貼現工具借出的款項約為140億美元，遠低于危機時期逾1100億美元的峰值。對定期拍賣安排這一特殊工具的使用次數也在減少。一段時間以來，美聯儲一直在削減此類安排，并將在3月份最終取消。
的確，美聯儲的零利率政策使收益率曲線保持陡峭。鑒于美國各銀行的平均凈利差處于4年高位，一些擁有大量不良資產的銀行去年受益匪淺，因為更廉價的資金助其平衡了壞賬撥備與信貸成本之間持續高企的比率。
但這種情況不可能持續。《機構風險分析》指出，銀行貸款賬戶的收益率已在不斷下降。這使長期利率保持低位的形勢變得更為嚴峻，因為資產重新定價、贖回和沖銷縮減了貸款余額的規模。
相比之下，利率上升應該會讓銀行更容易以有利可圖的方式配置資金。利率大幅上升加大了某些銀行因利率風險而倒閉的可能性。但瑞信(Credit
Suisse)辯稱，銀行一直在將貸款的賬面價值轉為彈性定價，意味著利率上升會帶來更多利潤。
存放在美聯儲的1.1萬億美元銀行超額準備金產生了另一個問題：如果銀行借出這些準備金，就正好在錯誤的時間提振了經濟。這解釋了美聯儲為何會重新強調準備金的利息支付(阻止這一切發生的工具)。然而，這對美聯儲來說是一個難題。銀行應該歡迎收緊貨幣政策，即便那些向它們借款的人并不樂意。
(文章來源：FT中文網)
點評:
①discount
rate，金融術語，意為貼現率。1.指商業銀行以政府債務如國庫券為抵押，向中央銀行借入資金的利率。2.泛指將未來現金流折算為現值的利率。在文中取第一個意思。
②at
which it lends to banks，定語從句，結構是“先行詞(discount
rate)+介詞(at)+關系代詞(which)”
③yield
curve，收益率曲線，債券術語，是顯示一組貨幣和信貸風險均相同，但期限不同的債券或其他金融工具收益率的圖表。縱軸代表收益率。
④redemption，贖回，指債券發行人在債券到期時贖回債券。
⑤delivering
…在此為現在分詞短語作結果狀語，是“借出這些準備金”所帶來的結果。
⑥tighter money在此相當于tight currency policy
(made by the Fed.)“緊縮的貨幣政策”。 |