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The perception in China is that revaluation ended the Japanese miracle
Since the Bretton Woods system of ①fixed exchange rates collapsed in 1971，some of the most high-profile attempts at global co-ordination have involved trying to stabilise major currencies.But the mixed record of these ad hoc efforts gives reluctant countries such as China an excuse not to repeat them—C suggesting that，for now，the Group of 20 leading nations will struggle to even try to match the role played by its predecessors，the G5 and G7.
After the collapse of Bretton Woods，some European countries attempted to manage their exchange rates against each other in the evocatively named“currency snake”，which hardened into a more formal system of fixed values and，eventually，the euro.
Otherwise，however，currencies ②swung against each other，sometimes wildly，as the economic and monetary turmoil of the 1970s combined with high and volatile oil prices to push exchange rates around.
The growing economic power of Japan，one of the first Asian export powerhouses，③raised concerns in the US about unfair currency valuations.
In the Plaza and Louvre accords of 1985 and 1987，the G5(later G7)grouping of governments agreed first to ④weaken the dollar then to stabilise it，hoping to reduce the US current account imbalance，particularly against Japan.But though the dollar did weaken，America’s trade deficit remained a problem. Moreover，the exercise was blamed in Japan for helping create the financial and property bubbles of the late 1980s，as monetary policy had to be loosened to offset the effects of a rising yen.
Two decades later，some are pushing for the 1980s movie to be remade with China taking the part of Japan and the G20 supplanting the G7.“Some international co-operation would be helpful in ⑤ensuring that exchange rates could play their role in rebalancing the world economy，”says Gerard Lyons，chief economist at Standard Chartered bank.
But China seems recalcitrant. Yesterday Wen Jiabao，premier，made clear that European attempts to press Beijing into letting the renminbi rise would be no more effective than US efforts.“There is a perception in China that the currency revaluations of the 1980s ended the Japanese economic miracle，”says Mark Manger，an expert on political economy at the London School of Economics，“so they are very reluctant to ⑥follow suit.”
譯文梗概
中國(guó)緣何不愿重蹈日本匯率覆轍
自1971年布雷頓森林體系之下的固定匯率制度崩潰以來(lái)，全球在協(xié)同經(jīng)濟(jì)方面所做嘗試中，最引人矚目的舉措都涉及穩(wěn)定主要貨幣匯率。但這些臨時(shí)舉措好壞參半，令中國(guó)等不太情愿的國(guó)家有理由不再重新嘗試。這意味著，就目前而言，20國(guó)集團(tuán)(G20)哪怕只是試著與其前身五國(guó)集團(tuán)(G5)或七國(guó)集團(tuán)(G7)所扮演的角色大致相同，也將十分困難。
日本是亞洲最早的出口大國(guó)之一，其迅速增長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力，引發(fā)了美國(guó)對(duì)于貨幣估值有失公允的擔(dān)憂。
在1985年廣場(chǎng)協(xié)定(Plaza Accord)和1987年盧浮宮協(xié)定(Louvre Accord)中，G5 (后來(lái)是G7)成員先是同意讓美元貶值，后來(lái)又決定穩(wěn)定美元匯率，希望以此減少美國(guó)經(jīng)常賬戶赤字，尤其是對(duì)日本的赤字。盡管美元的確貶值，但美國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差的問題依然存在。此外，日本國(guó)內(nèi)則指責(zé)這種做法助長(zhǎng)了20世紀(jì)80年代末的日本金融及房地產(chǎn)泡沫。
20年之后，一些人正力圖讓上世紀(jì)80年代的影片重演，由中國(guó)扮演日本的角色，而G7則由G20來(lái)取代。“一定的國(guó)際協(xié)作，將有助于確保匯率在恢復(fù)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)平衡方面發(fā)揮自己的作用，”渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家杰拉德·萊昂斯表示。
但中國(guó)似乎不愿從命。11月30日，中國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院總理溫家寶明確表示，歐洲向北京施壓、要求人民幣升值的努力，不會(huì)比美國(guó)的努力更有效。
“在中國(guó)有這樣一種看法，即上世紀(jì)80年代日元的升值，終結(jié)了日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)奇跡。”倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院(LSE)政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)專家馬克·曼格(Mark Manger)表示，“因此他們非常不愿意重蹈覆轍。”
（文章來(lái)源：FT中文網(wǎng)）
點(diǎn)評(píng):
①fixed exchange rates固定匯率，與high-profile相反的是low-profile(意為“低調(diào)的、低姿態(tài)的”)；currency和monetary都是指貨幣，前者是名詞，后者用作形容詞。
②swing本意是“擺動(dòng)，搖動(dòng)”的意思，在這里是指各種貨幣間的匯率的變動(dòng)，A貨幣對(duì)B貨幣的匯率，介詞用against。
③raise concerns about…引發(fā)關(guān)于…的擔(dān)憂。
④關(guān)于貨幣價(jià)值的變化說(shuō)法，常見的主要有這幾種：appreciate\strengthen或devalue\weaken the currency(dollar)，升值、貶值；hoping……現(xiàn)在分詞短語(yǔ)作目的狀語(yǔ)；current account是指經(jīng)常賬戶，與資本和金融賬戶capital and financial account一起構(gòu)成一國(guó)國(guó)際收支平衡表(International Balance of Payments)的主要兩部分。相關(guān)的術(shù)語(yǔ)還有balance account結(jié)余，差額清算，決算賬戶；false account假賬。
⑤ensure vt.擔(dān)保，確保，在此相當(dāng)于make certain that；rebalancing the world economy意為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡，imbalance“失衡”。
⑥follow suit愿意是指在玩牌時(shí)出同花色的牌，該短語(yǔ)譯法靈活，可以表示照著做，如法炮制之意。在這里的意思是重蹈覆轍。 |