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美聯儲宣布削減購債規模100億美元
2013-12-19   作者:樊宇 蔣旭峰  來源:中國金融信息網
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  美國聯邦儲備委員會18日宣布,將從明年開始小幅削減月度資產購買規模,同時加強對超低利率政策的前瞻指引。

  美聯儲當天在結束政策例會后發表聲明說,考慮到就業市場已取得的進展和前景的改善,決定從明年1月起小幅削減月度資產購買規模,將長期國債的購買規模從450億美元降至400億美元,將抵押貸款支持證券的購買規模從400億美元降至350億美元。這樣一來,美聯儲月度資產購買規模將從原來的850億美元縮減至750億美元。

  美聯儲表示,如果未來數據符合美聯儲對就業市場持續改善和通脹向長期目標靠攏的預期,美聯儲的決策機構——聯邦公開市場委員會可能在未來的會議上繼續小幅削減資產購買規模。

  美聯儲在聲明中說,在失業率高于6.5%、未來1年至2年通脹預期不超過2.5%的情況下,美聯儲將繼續把聯邦基金利率(即商業銀行間隔夜拆借利率)保持在零至0.25%的超低區間。聯邦公開市場委員會預計,在失業率降至6.5%以下之后,仍可能把聯邦基金利率保持在目前的超低水平一段時間,尤其是在通脹預期持續低于2%的長期目標的情況下。

  附:

  美聯儲政策聲明(英文版)

  美聯儲公開市場委員會12月17日-12月18日政策聲明(英文版)

  Press Release

  Release Date: December 18, 2013

  For immediate release

  Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

  Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

  Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

  The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

  To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

  Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Eric S. Rosengren, who believes that, with the unemployment rate still elevated and the inflation rate well below the target, changes in the purchase program are premature until incoming data more cle

  美聯儲政策聲明(中文版)

  美聯儲公開市場委員會12月17日-12月18日政策聲明(中文版)

  美聯儲(FED)周三(10月18日)公布了2013年第八次利率決議及政策聲明,以下為美聯儲公開市場委員會(FOMC)政策聲明的全文:

  美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)自10月會議以來獲得的信息顯示,今年上半年經濟活動繼續溫和(moderate)擴張。近幾個月,就業市場狀況顯示進一步改善跡象,失業率已經下滑但仍處于高位。家庭支出和企業固定投資增加,但近幾個月樓市復蘇有所放緩,而且財政政策限制經濟成長,盡管限制程度可能正在減輕。通脹一直低于委員會的較長期目標水準,但較長期通脹預期保持穩定。

  委員會將依照法定的目標,尋求促進就業最大化和物價穩定。委員會預計在合適的寬松政策下,經濟增長將較近期進度加快,失業率將向委員會認為符合其雙目標的水準逐步下滑。委員會預計經濟和就業市場前景的下滑風險已經更接近平衡。委員會意識到通脹持續低于2%的目標可能將給經濟帶來風險,并正密切監控通脹發展,以尋找中期通脹率可能回升向2%的目標的證據。

  考慮到自美聯儲開始購買資產計劃以來聯邦財政緊縮政策的程度,委員會認為,經濟活動和就業市場狀況的改善符合經濟的潛在強勁勢頭不斷增長的事實。鑒于美國在就業最大化方面已經取得的累積進展、以及就業市場狀況前景的改善,委員會決定小幅縮減資產購買規模。自明年1月起,將按每月350億美元的進度購買機構抵押支持債券(MBS),原先為400億美元,以及以每月400億美元的進度購買較長期國債,原先為450億美元。委員會維持把所持機構債和機構MBS回籠本金再投資到機構MBS的現有政策,以及通過標購繼續延長所持國債年期。委員會龐大的、且仍在不斷增長的較長期證券倉位應會對較長期利率構成下壓,支持抵押貸款市場,并扶助更廣泛金融市場環境更為寬松,從而促進經濟更強勁復蘇,幫助確保通脹隨著時間回到最符合委員會雙目標水準。

  委員會在未來幾個月將密切監控未來經濟和金融發展信息。委員會將繼續購買國債和機構MBS,并動用其它適當的政策工具,直至在物價穩定的前提下實現就業市場明顯改善。如果新進的信息普遍支持就業市場狀況持續改善、以及通脹回向較長期目標的委員會預期,委員會將可能在未來會議上采取進一步有序的措施縮減購買資產進度。但購買資產不是在預先設定的進程,委員會在決定購買資產進度時,仍將取決于委員會對于未來勞動市場及通脹的看法,以及對這類購買資產的潛在功效和成本的評估。

  為支持向就業最大化和物價穩定的目標繼續前進,委員會預計在購買資產計劃結束和經濟復蘇強化后的一段長時間內保持高度寬松貨幣政策立場仍是合適的。委員會還決定,只要失業率仍在6.5%之上、通脹一兩年內未較委員會較長期目標2%高出超過0.5個百分點、且較長期通脹預期仍良好受控的情況下,將維持聯邦基金利率目標在0-0.25%的區間不變。為決定維持高度寬松貨幣政策多久,委員會還將考慮其他信息,包括其他就業市場狀況數據、通脹壓力指標和通脹預期,以及金融市場發展數據。委員會目前預計,基于對上述因素的評估,在失業率跌至6.5%之下后的一段相當長時間內維持聯邦基金利率目前目標區間將可能是合適的,尤其是如果預估通脹繼續低于委員會2%的較長期目標。在委員會決定開始撤走寬松政策時,將采取符合就業最大化和通脹2%較長期目標的均衡措施。

  贊成FOMC政策決定投票的委員是:美聯儲主席伯南克(Ben S. Bernanke)、副主席杜德利(William C. Dudley),芝加哥聯儲主席埃文斯(Charles Evans),堪薩斯聯儲主席喬治(Esther George),理事鮑威爾(Jerome H. Powell),圣路易斯聯儲主席布拉德(James Bullard),理事斯坦(Jeremy C. Stein),理事塔魯洛(Daniel Tarullo),副主席耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)。

  另有1名美聯儲委員對聲明持異議,波士頓聯儲主席羅森格倫(Eric Rosengren),他認為由于失業率仍偏高,通脹遠低于目標,在未來數據更清晰的顯示經濟成長可能維持潛在水準之上前,改變購買資產計劃時機尚不成熟。

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